Consultancy for Evaluating Economy Wide Impact of The MaYEA Program Interventions 9 views

Terms of Reference for Evaluating Economy Wide Impact of The MaYEA Program Interventions Including Contribution to National Production, Poverty Reduction and Employment

1. BACKGROUND

    

1.1       International Centre of Insect Physiology and Ecology (icipe):

The International Centre of Insect Physiology and Ecology (icipe) was established in Kenya in 1970. icipe is the only independent international institute working primarily on arthropods. It employs a diverse range of scientific disciplines in a holistic manner to perform original research on pest and beneficial insects and arthropods with the goal of improving human and livestock health, crop production, ecological system, and well-being of communities. icipe has carved out a leading role in what may be termed tropical insect science, as reflected in the range, depth, and impact of its strong publication record. The focus of this work is sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), particularly the large population of smallholder farmers. At the core of its mission is the development of affordable and effective tools and strategies to combat insect pests and vector-borne diseases to help alleviate poverty, ensure food security, and improve the overall health of peoples of the tropic. Its mandate is to develop alternative and environmentally friendly pest and vector management strategies that are effective, selective, non-polluting, non-resistance inducing and affordable for uptake by resource-limited rural and urban communities.

icipe’s mandate, while unique, also introduces challenges, given that icipe works across the four health themes: Human Health, Animal Health, Plant Health, and Environmental Health. To have an effective impact in these diverse areas, icipe operates through different impact pathways, employing partnerships with different agencies across the public and private sectors. Few research institutes straddle such different sectors, creating challenges in both downstream delivery and in resource mobilization. Moreover, given the large number of insect and arthropod vectors that carry human, animal and plant diseases, an even larger number that directly attack plants, and many others that provide beneficial ecosystem services such as pollination, create decent jobs of youth, improve food security and living standards of poor people. One of icipe’s flagship programs striving to create decent jobs and improving livelihood of people is the More Young Entrepreneurs in Silk and Honey (MOYESH). This program as since October 2019 been implemented with the aim to enable 150,000 young men and women (70% young women) to secure dignified and fulfilling jobs in the honey, silk, and integrated value chains by September 2024. The target would be realized through (1) building young people’s hard and soft skills, (2) equipping them with improved beekeeping and sericulture technologies, and (3) creating access to finance and market services and land to establish viable and sustainable enterprises in honey and silk value chains. The programme has been implemented in 89 districts (Woredas) in eight regional states of Ethiopia (Amhara, Oromia, Tigray, Central, Ethiopia, South Ethiopia, Southwest Ethiopia, and Sidama).

Building on the successes of the MOYESH programme, the Mass Youth Employment in Apiculture (MaYEA) programme (2023-2027) was designed to generate an additional 1 million job opportunities for young women and men. This programme adopted a demand-driven employment generation modality, leveraging public private partnerships and unlocking systemic bottlenecks. It actively seeks to empower young women and men to create and expand their businesses in the beekeeping sector and related businesses. It catalyses the participation of the private sector partners through innovative business solutions. The icipe aimed to assess key MaYEA’s performance indicators and understand the implication of these indicators to the beneficiary youth, their households and beyond, which will be not only important to evaluate the performance of MaYEA but also learn icipe’s contribution to national apiculture sector and job creation to scale up similar interventions in the country and beyond.

2.       Objectives

The main objective of this consultancy is updating the MOYESH ex-ante economy wide impact model done earlier and estimate ex-ante impact of MaYEA Program interventions on national employment reduction, honey production and poverty reduction. The specific objectives are:

1. Update the MOYESH program ex-post impact and estimate the MaYEA Program ex-ante impact using available baseline information (ex-ante and ex-post impact)
2. Produce technical paper on farmers willingness to pay for managed pollination services using secondary data collected by icipe (WTP)
3. Estimate household and youth level impact of the MoYESH Program using program baseline data and follow up surveys (DID)
4. Estimate economy wide impact of pollination services on national crop production using computable general equilibrium model (pollination)

    

   EXPECTED OUTPUTS 

At the end of this assignment 3 major outputs are expected.

1. Research report on ex-ante and ex-post impact of MaYEA program using CGE model
2. Technical paper on farmers’ willingness to pay for pollination services
3. MOYESH Program impact paper using quasi-experimental methods

To complete these deliverables the following key activities are expected.

1. Review key performance indicators from MaYEA and MOYESH programs and establish baseline characteristics.
2. Review various qualitative and quantitative reports of the MOYESH Program
3. Design policy scenarios based on key performance indicators of the MaYEA program for economywide model analysis.
4. Disaggregate the Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for Ethiopia by estimating detailed inputs, outputs, and value-added of the beekeeping sector including pollination benefits, balance the SAM; link it with the appropriate CGE model; and write necessary GAMS programs to achieve this.
5. Develop the household module that capture welfare effects of households to policy changes (MaYEA program in this context) and integrate this module with the CGE model.
6. Run simulations using the scenarios developed in #1.
7. Conduct analysis of household and youth survey data estimate WTP for managed pollination services and its determinant factors
8. Clean, merge, and analyze data to estimate the impact of MOYESH program intervention on youths using the quasi-experimental methods.
9. Prepare 4 scientific research reports in collaboration with the program team.

    

4.         METHODOLOGY 

The analysis will be done using a combination of descriptive techniques, econometrics, integrating with household modules and micro simulation models using GAMS, Stata and Excel/CSV files. Specifically, the consultant will apply computable general equilibrium modelling approaches and state of the art impact estimation techniques given the program context. The consultant is expected to further develop the methodology in consultation with the program team.

5. KEY DELIVERABLES 

1. The disaggregated social accounting matrix (SAM) with detailed accounts of the beekeeping sector including pollination values
2. Integrated household module with the CGE model
3. Simulation results for each scenario with key welfare indicators included.
4. Provide on the job-training on the SAM and integrated household module with the CGE model for the icipe staff who will work with the consultant.
5. Draft paper on ex-ante and ex-post impact of MaYEA
6. Stata codes and study reports for MOYESH Impact and WTP papers

    

The payments will be effected based on the following deliverables.

The activity is expected to be completed by December 15, 2024.

TIME FRAME

The study is expected to be completed within 3 months commencing effective 30th October 2024.

 SUPERVISOR

The consultant shall report to Dr. Zewdu Abro during the duration of the consultancy for all technical matters. Email: [email protected]. He will also report to Bedaso Taye for contractual and admin issues.